The number of connected IoT devices will reach 21.1 billion by the end of 2025, according to IoT Analytics. That figure represents a 14 percent jump from the 18.5 billion active connections recorded in 2024. The research firm published its updated forecast on October 28, citing first-half connection data and softer-than-expected demand in China as the main factors behind a 300 million unit downward revision from its September 2024 projection.
Growth in 2024 ran at 12 percent year over year, a pace that IoT Analytics attributes to continued capital expenditure deferrals across several sectors. The firm counts active nodes and gateways rather than every individual sensor, and it excludes computers, phones, and consumer tablets from its totals. Connections using multiple communication standards are counted only once to avoid double counting.
The forecast matters because it signals where the next wave of device data will come from, and that data feeds the AI models now driving infrastructure investment. Satyajit Sinha, senior principal analyst at IoT Analytics, said artificial intelligence is expected to act as a key growth driver through 2030 as demand for device data rises in line with advances in AI. The market is projected to hit 39 billion connections by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 13.2 percent from 2025, before growth tapers off as the pool of unconnected devices with incremental value shrinks.
Wi-Fi leads connectivity but cellular gains ground
Wi-Fi accounts for 32 percent of all IoT connections, making it the single largest connectivity technology. Shipments of Wi-Fi IoT chipsets normalized in 2024 after pandemic-era volatility, setting a stronger base for 2025. Low-power Wi-Fi adoption is rising as devices use Wi-Fi 6 features such as Target Wake Time and extended sleep modes to cut energy consumption, enabling battery-powered sensors, locks, and appliances. Enterprise upgrades to Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 are also accelerating throughput and reliability improvements. Wi-Fi HaLow, operating below 1 GHz, is gaining traction for long-range, low-power links in industrial and outdoor applications.
Bluetooth holds 24 percent of connections and remains the second-largest category. Bluetooth Low Energy continues to lead battery-powered IoT as new system-on-chip families from Nordic Semiconductor, Silicon Labs, and Texas Instruments integrate compute, radio, and security while lowering cost and power draw. Industrial adoption is rising through IO-Link Wireless, which uses the Bluetooth IEEE 802.15.1 standard for reliable sensor-to-controller communication. Bluetooth 5.4 is becoming the preferred platform for large-scale electronic shelf labels, with national retail deployments underway in North America and Europe.
Cellular IoT makes up 22 percent of global connections and grew 16 percent year over year in 2024, outpacing overall IoT growth. The cellular IoT chipset market reached $4.07 billion in 2024, up 19 percent, and is forecast to hit $14.08 billion by 2030 at a 23 percent compound annual growth rate. 5G chipsets are projected to drive most of that expansion, reaching $9.31 billion by 2030 on a 34 percent CAGR, fueled by fixed wireless access, video telematics, industrial gateways, and automotive applications. Private 5G deployments in China have demonstrated scalability for high-reliability use cases.
China dominates cellular IoT market
China Mobile contributed 44 percent of global cellular IoT connections and 17 percent of global cellular IoT connectivity revenue in 2024. Its one-stop solution across chips, operating systems, modules, and platforms powered growth across video-based IoT, city operations, and industrial assets. The company's IoT platforms — OneLink, OneNET, and OneCyber — have supported these segments for years.
China Telecom captured 15 percent of global cellular IoT connections and 6 percent of revenue. Growth stemmed from city programs using the IoT Cognition Cloud Platform, which expanded metering, safety, and video analytics capabilities. China Unicom also held 15 percent of connections and 10 percent of revenue, driven by connected automotive, smart metering, and logistics. Its Gewu industrial-internet platform earned national Class A "dual-cross" status from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recognizing strong cross-industry and cross-domain integration capabilities.
Vodafone and AT&T round out the top five operators by connection count. Vodafone held 5 percent of connections and 8 percent of revenue, with automotive as its largest contributor and strong project revenue growth in the UK. AT&T contributed 4 percent of connections but 12 percent of revenue, led by connected automotive across major OEMs and LTE-M adoption in asset tracking, logistics, and medical peripherals. Mobile operators worldwide generated $18.4 billion in revenue from 4.1 billion cellular IoT connections in 2024. The top five operators managed 83 percent of all global cellular IoT connections.
LTE Cat-1 bis replaces legacy networks
The cellular IoT market is diverging along two vectors. Volume growth is increasingly driven by LTE Cat-1 and Cat-1 bis, which are becoming the default migration paths as 2G and 3G networks sunset. LTE Cat-1 bis is emerging as the main high-volume option, supporting applications like point-of-sale terminals, asset tracking, and light telematics. Revenue growth is shifting toward premium 5G use cases. 5G Reduced Capability (RedCap) is positioned to replace LTE Cat-4 by offering similar throughput while reducing complexity and power consumption compared to full 5G, making it suitable for smart cameras, wearables, and video-based telemetry.
NB-IoT momentum is fading amid new competition. While NB-IoT and LTE-M enjoyed strong growth over the past nine years and are now widely deployed, they are increasingly challenged by Cat-1 bis in metering and similar use cases. The NB-IoT market is entering a phase of maturity, and the key question is whether it can sustain momentum or will settle into low single-digit growth after rapid expansion earlier this decade. AT&T shut down its NB-IoT data plans in November 2024, a move that underscores the shifting landscape. The positioning of eRedCap, a technology sitting between Cat-1 bis and RedCap, raises questions about future cannibalization.
AI and the road to 39 billion
IoT Analytics estimates the market will reach 39 billion connections in 2030 and exceed 50 billion well after 2035. Full market saturation is not expected before then. The 2025 forecast is approximately 400 million below the firm's 2018 projection for the same year, a gap that reflects how difficult long-range forecasting remains in this space. China's demand softness and capex deferrals have been persistent headwinds, but the structural drivers — AI data demand, enterprise network upgrades, and legacy network sunsets — remain intact.
For developers and integrators, the shift toward Wi-Fi HaLow, Bluetooth 5.4, and 5G RedCap means new hardware selection criteria. Power budgets, range requirements, and module availability will drive decisions more than protocol allegiance. The chipset market consolidation around a few dominant players in each category — Nordic and Silicon Labs in Bluetooth, Qualcomm and MediaTek in cellular — also means supply chain resilience depends on fewer sources. IoT coverage shows similar consolidation patterns across edge compute and sensor markets.
The next forecast update will arrive after first-half 2026 data becomes available. Whether the 14 percent growth rate holds or slides further will depend on China's industrial recovery trajectory and the pace of AI infrastructure build-out. IoT Analytics report