The number of connected IoT devices reached 21.1 billion in 2025, a 13 percent jump from the year before, according to IoT Analytics' State of Enterprise IoT 2026 report. That figure works out to roughly three connected devices for every person on the planet, and it keeps climbing. The story this year isn't about adding more gadgets. It's about making the ones already installed talk to each other.
Charlie Ice, wireless product marketer at NXP Semiconductors, put it plainly in a recent industry piece: the next wave of IoT growth will focus less on adding devices and more on making connected environments smarter, more autonomous, and easier to manage. That shift shows up across seven trends NXP identified for 2026, spanning energy management, edge AI, wireless protocols, and a tightening regulatory environment.
The stakes are concrete. Energy costs keep rising, the EU is enforcing new cybersecurity rules, and consumers are drowning in apps for devices that don't cooperate. By the end of this year, a homeowner with 40 connected devices from a dozen brands should be able to set up a single automation that cuts peak-hour electricity use without switching apps. Whether that promise holds depends on whether the Matter protocol and Thread networking standard deliver on their interoperability claims.
Energy management moves from niche to default
International regulations and rising carbon-reduction targets, combined with higher energy bills, are pushing homes and buildings toward automated efficiency. The mechanism is straightforward: the electric grid, home solar panels, battery storage, and major appliances all need to communicate in a common language and adjust usage in real time.
A tumble dryer might delay its cycle when solar output drops and grid demand spikes. That kind of coordination requires the Matter smart home protocol, which gives energy-management systems a secure, interoperable channel for autonomous device-to-device negotiation. Without it, each appliance vendor builds its own silo, and the homeowner is left toggling switches manually.
KNX IoT plays a similar role in commercial buildings, where the installed base of legacy automation systems is larger and the energy stakes are higher. A single office tower can cut tens of thousands of dollars in annual electricity costs by linking HVAC, lighting, and occupancy sensors through one protocol stack.
Edge AI keeps data inside the device
Smart cameras, thermostats, and sensors are starting to run AI models locally instead of sending raw data to the cloud. Edge AI means the model executes on the device itself, which cuts response times, reduces bandwidth use, lowers power draw, and keeps footage and sensor readings on the premises.
The catch is connectivity. Edge AI devices still need reliable wireless links for cloud sync and device-to-device coordination. Wi-Fi and Thread handle that layer, while Matter, KNX IoT, and Dali+ provide the application-level interoperability. A camera that detects a person in the hallway is only useful if it can tell the lights and the door lock what to do without a round trip through a remote server.
Thread 1.4 fixes the network plumbing
Truly autonomous homes depend on sensors, buttons, and switches that survive for years on a single battery. Thread's low-power mesh networking makes that possible, and a Thread sensor can run for years on one coin-cell battery. Thread 1.4 adds two features that matter in practice: a standardized way to share network credentials with new devices and border routers so they all join one Thread network, and support for extending Thread networks over Wi-Fi and Ethernet.
That second feature is the one installers will notice. It means a smart home can grow beyond a single router's radio range without buying proprietary range extenders. The flexibility should make Thread more popular through 2026, and it gives devices from different ecosystems a shared backbone.
Occupancy sensing changes how spaces behave
Location and presence data let a system make decisions that would otherwise be impossible. A smart door lock can unlock when it detects the homeowner at the door. A conference room can configure lighting, HVAC, and IT equipment based on who enters and how many people are present.
The underlying technologies include ultrawideband, Wi-Fi sensing, and Bluetooth channel sounding, all combined with edge processing. Emerging standards like Aliro, alongside Matter and KNX IoT, are translating those capabilities into interoperable products. Aliro specifically targets digital keys, so a phone or wearable could replace a physical key fob across multiple brands of lock.
Security rules tighten on both sides of the Atlantic
The EU has enacted the Cyber Resilience Act and updated its Radio Equipment Directive to address cybersecurity threats. In parallel, the U.S. government partnered with industry to create the U.S. Cyber Trust Mark, a label that lets consumers identify secure IoT products at a glance.
Devices will need to go beyond basic cryptography. System-level security means protecting the device, its communications, and the network it sits on. Matter, Thread, KNX IoT, and Wi-Fi all include multiple security requirements for network and communications, while silicon-level security features help implement those requirements on the chip itself. Manufacturers who treated security as a checkbox are going to spend 2026 catching up.
Interoperability is the real product
A smart home in 2026 can contain hundreds of devices from dozens of manufacturers. Those devices must work together to deliver anything resembling an autonomous home. Protocols like Matter and KNX-IoT enable that by letting certified devices from any vendor interact at the application level in a secure way.
The Connectivity Standards Alliance and the KNX Association are the groups pushing those standards forward, alongside semiconductor providers like NXP. Whether the 21.1 billion devices already deployed can be updated to speak these protocols is an open question. Many older devices lack the memory or radio hardware to join a Thread network or run Matter, which means the transition will be gradual and uneven.
It's not clear this will hold. Matter 1.4 added support for new device types, but certification testing still lags behind the spec, and a device that passes the lab test sometimes fails in a real home with 30 other radios competing for airtime.
What to watch through the rest of the year
Three things will determine whether 2026 lives up to the interoperability promises. First, Thread 1.4 border routers need to ship in volume from major vendors like Apple, Google, and Amazon, not just in spec sheets. Second, the U.S. Cyber Trust Mark needs to move from pilot program to shelf-ready labels consumers actually see. Third, energy-management features need to work out of the box without a technician visit, because most homeowners won't pay for professional installation of a $40 smart plug.
The device count will keep growing regardless. The question is whether those 21.1 billion devices form one coherent system or a pile of isolated gadgets with separate apps. NXP's Charlie Ice expects semiconductor providers and standards groups to keep building on these trends through the year. The rest of the industry has to actually ship the products.
For more on wireless IoT developments, see Microwave & RF's coverage.
Browse more IoT coverage at our IoT category.