National Storage Targets Fall 45% Short of COP29 Pledge, Ember Analysis Reveals

Introduction

National governments are falling 45% short of the global energy storage commitment they made at COP29, even as battery deployment accelerates at record speed. That is the headline finding of a new analysis released on October 15 by energy think tank Ember, which found that the sum of national 2030 storage targets now stands at 822 GW across 99 countries and the European Union — a 190% increase since the November 2024 summit in Baku, but still 678 GW below the 1,500 GW pledge.

The gap is not for lack of battery manufacturing capacity or installers. Global battery additions hit 108 GW in 2025 alone — an elevenfold increase from 9.5 GW in 2021 — and annual installations have grown at nearly 80% year-over-year since 2020. Ember estimates that simply sustaining the 2025 installation rate through 2030 would yield roughly 1,020 GW of cumulative global storage, exceeding current national targets by 24% but still leaving the COP29 pledge unmet.

"Almost all of the increase in global storage ambition since COP29 comes down to two economies: China and the EU," said Dr Katye Altieri, Global Program Consultant at Ember. "Most other major solar markets still haven't set a 2030 storage target at all. And that's a missed opportunity, because storage targets give investors the certainty to build."

The Target Gap: Where the Numbers Come From

The COP29 Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, signed by 74 countries in November 2024, called for a sixfold increase in global storage capacity to 1,500 GW by 2030. At the time, national targets totalled just 284 GW. Ember's October 2026 update shows those targets have nearly tripled to 822 GW, driven overwhelmingly by two policy moves:

• China's 15th Five-Year Plan raised its 2030 target by 330 GW, from 130 GW to 460 GW of combined new-type energy storage (predominantly batteries) and pumped hydro storage — the largest and most detailed national storage target of any market.
• The European Union agreed its first bloc-wide storage target in June 2026, set at 200 GW by 2030.

Together, China and the EU now account for more than 80% of all national storage targets worldwide. The remaining countries — including eight of the world's top 20 solar-capacity markets — have made little or no adjustment since Baku. Among those without a 2030 storage target are the United States, Germany, and Saudi Arabia, all of which are already building storage at scale without a policy anchor.

Why Targets Matter When Deployment Is Already Ahead

Battery installations are progressing whether or not a target exists. The United States has deployed roughly 52 GW of utility-scale batteries to date, and Saudi Arabia recently connected the world's largest single battery project. But Ember warns that strong deployment does not make targets redundant. Projects remain highly concentrated in a few markets, while many countries with growing flexibility needs have little storage development and no target at all.

Targets also address needs that capacity totals do not capture: operational planning, regulatory barriers, and coordination between storage and renewables. Ember's analysis finds a close relationship between solar and storage ambition — countries with large storage targets tend to have large solar targets too — but that link breaks down among some of the biggest solar markets.

"Storage targets give investors the certainty to build," Altieri said. "Without them, the progress is highly concentrated, and many countries still have growing flexibility needs, little storage development, and no target."

Supply-Side Signals: Technology Race Keeps Pace

While policy lags, battery technology continues to advance on multiple fronts. Chinese automakers and battery makers are pushing energy density and safety boundaries that directly feed grid-scale products:

• Li Auto will hold its Power Day on October 20, where CEO Li Xiang is expected to detail the company's in-house 5C battery cells, produced through a 50/50 joint venture with Sunwoda established in 2025. The updated Li i6 launching October 28 will feature those 5C cells alongside Li Auto's Mach assisted-driving chip. Li has said the company's in-house development — spanning cells, packs, BMS, thermal management, and vehicle controls — is guided by the criterion of "which approach is better for users," and that its Lianshan quality monitoring system connects data across upstream materials, cell manufacturing, pack production, and vehicle use for traceability and early defect detection.
• Dongfeng Motor plans to begin mass-producing its 350 Wh/kg solid-liquid hybrid battery in the fourth quarter of 2026, after unveiling it this month. The battery passed a 170°C thermal chamber test (exceeding China's 130°C national standard) and retained over 72% energy at -30°C. Dongfeng aims to deploy 100 demonstration vehicles by year-end and 50,000 vehicles with its in-house solid-state batteries in 2027.
• ALGATEC presented what it called a world-premiere lithium-free battery at WETEX 2026 in Dubai, claiming an energy density of up to 1,000 Wh/kg. The technology, described by the company as a revolutionary battery chemistry, is still at the demonstration stage.

These supply-side moves illustrate why BloombergNEF expects around 1,200 GW of batteries alone to be deployed by 2030 — a market forecast that exceeds current national targets by roughly 380 GW but still falls short of the 1,500 GW pledge.

The Solar-Storage Mismatch

Of the top 20 solar-capacity countries, eight still have no 2030 storage target: the United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Austria, Switzerland, Brazil, and Spain. Spain retains a target of 22.5 GW by 2030 included in its National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), approved in September 2024, but has not increased it since Baku. India, another major solar market, also has not raised its target.

Australia revised its projection to 33 GW by 2030, while Vietnam set a target of 22.3 GW (16.3 GW batteries + 6 GW pumped hydro). These remain exceptions. Most large solar markets have made no significant changes to their plans since the COP29 summit.

The mismatch matters because solar and storage are co-dependent. Solar generation peaks at midday; storage shifts that energy to evening peaks. Without storage targets, grid operators lack a planning framework for integrating rising solar shares, leading to curtailment and missed flexibility value.

Looking Ahead: COP31 and the Electrification Pledge

Storage is also central to the next pledge on the table. Türkiye's COP31 presidency is pushing a "35-by-35" Global Electrification Pledge to raise electricity's share of final energy demand from around 20% to 35% by 2035. Ember notes this pledge can only deliver its climate and energy security benefits if the new demand it creates is met by renewables backed by adequate grids and storage.

Meeting existing national targets would require an average of 78 GW of additional storage capacity annually between 2026 and 2030 — a volume below what was installed in both 2024 and 2025. Ember sees this as evidence that governments could raise their targets without straining supply chains.

Conclusion

The battery industry is delivering. Manufacturing scale, cost reductions averaging 20% annually over the past decade, and technology advances from 5C cells to solid-liquid hybrids are all moving faster than the policy framework meant to guide them. The 45% gap between national targets and the COP29 pledge is not a supply problem — it is an ambition problem.

For battery makers and investors, the message is clear: the market is already building toward 1,000+ GW by 2030, with or without updated national targets. Countries that formalize storage ambition now will capture more of the investment, manufacturing, and grid resilience benefits. Those that wait risk importing both the technology and the flexibility they will inevitably need.

The next twelve months — culminating at COP31 — will test whether governments can turn the COP29 pledge from a headline into a planning reality. The batteries are ready. The question is whether the targets will be.

References

• Ember, "Storage targets nearly triple since COP29, but still fall 45% short of 1,500 GW pledge," 15 Oct 2026. https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/storage-targets-nearly-triple-since-cop29-but-still-fall-45-short-of-1500-gw-pledge/
• pv magazine USA, "National storage targets fall 45% short of COP29 pledge," 19 Oct 2026. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/10/19/national-storage-targets-fall-45-short-of-cop29-pledge/
• CnEVPost, "Li Auto to hold Power Day on October 20 to share latest EV tech advances," 19 Oct 2026. https://cnevpost.com/2026/10/19/li-auto-power-day-oct-20/
• CnEVPost, "Dongfeng to unveil in-house hybrid solid-liquid battery in October, mass production in Q4," 9 Sept 2026. https://cnevpost.com/2026/09/09/dongfeng-unveil-hybrid-solid-liquid-battery-oct-2026/
• WAM, "ALGATEC debuts battery technology at WETEX 2026," 16 Oct 2026. https://www.wam.ae/en/article/c2rsz2u-algatec-debuts-battery-technology-wetex-2026/
• Related: Battery Tech category