BNEF Raises US Energy Storage Deployment Forecast 30% — Data Centers, Trade Policy, and New Chemistry Drive Growth

The BloombergNEF October 2026 industry outlook sent shockwaves through the energy storage market by revising U.S. deployment forecasts upward by 30% over the next decade. The semiannual outlook, published October 27, 2026, projects cumulative U.S. installations of 213.9 GW by 2030 and 434.4 GW by 2036 — representing a substantial upgrade from the six-month-earlier estimate that had factored in only moderate growth assumptions. This revision arrives amid signs of continued momentum for the U.S. energy storage industry, with data center operators, utilities, and corporate buyers all accelerating their behind-the-meter investments. As BNEF senior energy storage analyst Isshu Kikuma told Utility Dive, the U.S. is set to deploy 30% more energy storage capacity over the next 10 years than expected just six months ago — a revision that, if realized, would meaningfully alter the trajectory of America's clean energy transition.

Data Center Storage Surge

The most immediate driver of the upward revision is the explosive growth of behind-the-meter storage at data centers. BNEF reports that on-site data center energy storage deployments reached 4.9 GW/7.4 GWh in 2026, up from just 500 MW/1.4 GWh in 2025 — a nearly tenfold increase in a single year. The consultancy projects this figure will reach 6.3 GW/8.4 GWh by 2027 and continue climbing through the decade, fueled in part by large-scale deployments like the 2.6-GW battery array that NextEra Energy plans to build alongside a 2-GW gas-fired power plant at a proposed $100 billion Brookfield Asset Management computing campus in Kentucky. Multiple battery suppliers have announced firm commitments from data center customers or utilities serving them this year; Fluence Energy inked a $300 million deal with a data center operator for behind-the-meter batteries earlier in 2026, while Canadian Solar subsidiary e-Storage said in March it would deliver 500 MW/2.5 GWh of energy storage to "a major U.S. utility" in 2027 to support data center grid infrastructure. Cumulative data center energy storage could reach 36 GW/66 GWh by 2036, much of it on grids overseen by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, PJM and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator. Data centers in PJM are more likely to use energy storage for load shifting than behind-the-meter gas due to tighter restrictions on power plant emissions in the region.

Trade Policy and the Reshaping of Supply Chains

The outlook's revision coincides with a fundamental shift in U.S. trade policy toward energy storage. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which extended federal tax credit eligibility for energy storage through 2035 while sunsetting solar eligibility later this decade, will support a pipeline of 83.7 GW/166.1 GWh of energy storage to be paired with 149.2 GW of solar, according to BNEF. However, the report characterizes the combined duty on stationary storage batteries imported from mainland China as 40.9% — the most aggressive protectionist efforts favoring the domestic battery storage industry while restricting supply chains involving mainland China. "The US has been making the most aggressive [protectionist] efforts by favoring the domestic battery storage industry while restricting the use of supply chains involving mainland China through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and other policy measures," the report says. Though still a relatively small share of overall U.S. battery deployment, on-site data center energy storage is growing quickly, with 4.9 GW/7.4 GWh expected this year — up from 500 MW/1.4 GWh in 2025, BNEF said.

Much of the new solar and storage capacity is co-located: the United States had installed 20.7 GW/66.4 GWh of energy storage projects co-located with 41.3 GW of solar by the end of 2025, about 30% of total colocated solar-plus-storage capacity. Some 4 GW of storage was co-located with solar in the U.S. in the first nine months of 2026.

New Chemistry: Sodium-Ion, Zinc-Air, and Iron-Air Pilots

While lithium-iron-phosphate will remain the dominant chemistry for new energy storage deployments over the next 10 years, sodium-ion alternatives will begin to eat into its market share, reaching 9% penetration by 2036, BNEF said. Sodium-ion batteries can be passively cooled, reducing parasitic energy load, and may be more durable than lithium batteries over a 20-year service life, proponents say. Led by Google, data center operators are experimenting with alternative chemistries that can discharge power for longer than lithium- or sodium-based batteries, including a proposed 10 MW/100 MWh zinc battery in West Virginia and a 300 MW/30 GWh iron-air battery in Minnesota. Though those efforts are too early to include in deployment forecasts, BNEF said, the mere fact that major tech players are evaluating zinc and iron-air chemistries signals a broader diversification underway. Earlier in 2026, Peak Energy said it closed $108 million in financing from General Motors and other backers as it works to deploy nearly 5 GWh of sodium-ion capacity by 2030, underscoring growing investor confidence in the technology beyond the established LFP standard.

LFP Dominance and Economics

Despite the emergence of new chemistries, lithium-iron-phosphate will continue to account for the vast majority of new deployments. BNEF sees the capacity ratio of solar-to-storage stabilizing at 4:1 in 2030, with annual deployments remaining steady at 3:1 thereafter as the energy storage industry matures. Energy storage deployments have far outpaced solar capacity additions in recent years, with the global cumulative installed solar-to-storage ratio falling from 94:1 in 2016 to 7:1 in 2026, BNEF said Thursday. Much of the new solar and storage capacity is co-located: the United States had installed 20.7 GW/66.4 GWh of energy storage projects co-located with 41.3 GW of solar by the end of 2025, about 30% of total colocated solar-plus-storage capacity. Despite the emergence of alternative technologies, lithium-iron-phosphate will continue to account for the vast majority of new deployments over the coming decade.

Outlook and Conclusions

The 30% upward revision to U.S. energy storage forecasts reflects converging forces: data center demand outpacing expectations, trade policy reshaping supply chains, and new chemistries beginning to penetrate the market. While LFP will continue to dominate near-term deployments, the entry of sodium-ion and experimental zinc-air and iron-air technologies points to a more diverse chemistry landscape over the coming decade. For investors, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's extended tax credit through 2035 creates a more stable policy environment, though trade barriers and supply chain restrictions add uncertainty. For grid operators, the projected 213.9 GW/434.4 GW of cumulative U.S. storage by 2036 represents a meaningful addition to the decarbonization toolkit, though the pace of deployment will depend on whether permitting, interconnection, and supply chain constraints can keep up with demand. As the BNEF report emphasizes, the U.S. battery storage industry is at an inflection point where policy, technology, and market demand are aligning — for the first time in years — to accelerate deployment at a scale that could meaningfully alter the trajectory of the nation's clean energy transition. For readers tracking the sector, the full arc of this story can be followed across the battery tech coverage published here.

References

• BloombergNEF, "U.S. Energy Storage Outlook," October 2026.
• Utility Dive, "BNEF ups US energy storage deployment forecast by 30%," October 27, 2026.
• BNEF senior energy storage analyst Isshu Kikuma on U.S. deployment acceleration.
• Fluence Energy $300 million data center battery deal, early 2026.
• Canadian Solar e-Storage 500 MW/2.5 GWh utility contract, March 2026.
• NextEra Energy 2.6-GW battery array proposal, Kentucky computing campus.
• Peak Energy $108M Series B from General Motors, early 2026.
• One Big Beautiful Bill Act, extending storage tax credits through 2035.
• BNEF global deployments forecast: 3,098 GW/11,106 GWh by 2036.
• Global solar-to-storage ratio: 94:1 (2016) to 7:1 (2026) to 4:1 (2030).
• U.S. colocated solar-plus-storage: 20.7 GW/66.4 GWh by end-2025; 4 GW in first 9 months of 2026.
• Google/Voltus PJM virtual power plant expansion to >1 GW.
• Zinc battery 10 MW/100 MWh proposal, West Virginia; iron-air 300 MW/30 GWh, Minnesota.